Hedgehog reappears, loses to fox

Hedgehog reappears, loses to fox
International Journal of Epidemiology 2007; 36:3-10
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In a famous essay, Isaiah Berlin used a fragment from an ancient Greek poem to characterize '[O]ne of the deepest differences which divide writers and thinkers, and, it may be, human beings in general.' That fragment is: 'The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.' He continued, [T]here exists a great chasm between those, on one side, who relate everything to a single central vision, one system less or more coherent or articulate, in terms of which they understand, think and feel ... and, on the other side, those who pursue many ends, often unrelated and even contradictory, connected, if at all, only in some de facto way ... The first kind of intellectual and artistic personality belongs to the hedgehogs, the second to the foxes.40 Hedgehogs are likely to think of prediction as a deductive exercise, whether based upon functionalism, free market economics or Marxism, whereas foxes are likely to make predictions based upon careful observations of particular cases. And studies of political forecasting indicate that foxes are better forecasters than hedgehogs, precisely because foxes are not committed to an overarching theory but are able to learn from their mistakes and remain open to new information. In a study of the forecasting accuracy of political experts, Philip Tetlock41 found that those who were least accurate looked very much like hedgehogs: '[T]hinkers who "know one big thing", aggressively extend the explanatory reach of that one big thing into new domains, display bristly impatience with those who "do not get it", and express considerable confidence that they are already pretty proficient forecasters, at least in the long term.'42 They are people who are likely to 'trivialize evidence that undercuts their preconceptions and to embrace evidence that reinforces their preconceptions.'43 Those who were more accurate 'look like foxes': [T]hinkers who know many small things (tricks of their trade), are skeptical of grand schemes, see explanation and prediction not as deductive exercises but rather as exercises in flexible 'ad hocery' that require stitching together diverse sources of information, and are rather diffident about their own forecasting  prowess, and ... rather dubious that the cloudlike subject of politics can by the object of a clocklike science.44 Foxes have a 'more balanced style of thinking about the world-a style of thought that elevates no thought above criticism.'45 Social epidemiology is more nearly akin to political forecasting than to physics. When considering the ssociations between sex, race and social roles on the one hand and health and disease on the other, accurate prediction is unlikely to rest upon deductive science and more likely to result from stitching together all that one can know about the context-institutional, cultural, political, epidemiological-in which particular populations live and work. Thus, social epidemiology is scientific as it reconstructs the past and explains the present, but it is not likely to be powerfully predictive. When it is successfully predictive, it is not likely to be because it is based upon deductions from scientifically valid generalizations that are true across time and place, but because analysts understand more or less intimately the people and places with which they are concerned, and because they can extrapolate sensibly from relevant experiences and groups elsewhere. 

QOL and exercise

The effects of exercise interventions on quality of life in clinical and healthy populations; a meta-analysis

Fiona Bridget Gillison, Suzanne M. Skevington, Ayana Sato, Martyn Standage and Stella Evangelidou
^aUniversity of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath BA2 7AY, United Kingdom

Available online 18 March 2009.
Abstract
The aim of the study was to provide an overview of the effect of exercise interventions on subjective quality of life (QoL) across adult clinical populations and well people, and to systematically investigate the impact of the exercise setting, intensity and type on these outcomes. From a systematic search of six electronic databases, 56 original studies were extracted, reporting on 7937 sick and well people. A meta-analysis was conducted on change in QoL from pre- to post-intervention compared with outcomes from a no-exercise control group, using weighted (by the study's sample size) pooled mean effect sizes and a fixed-effects model. Significant differences in outcome were found when treatment purpose was compared; prevention/promotion (well populations), rehabilitation, or disease management. Three to 6 months post-baseline, a moderate positive effect of exercise interventions was found for overall QoL in rehabilitation patients, but no significant effect for well or disease management groups. However, physical and psychological QoL domains improved significantly relative to controls in well participants. Psychological QoL was significantly poorer relative to controls in the disease management group. This pattern of results persisted over 1 year. With some exceptions, better overall QoL was reported for light intensity exercise undertaken in group settings, with greater improvement in physical QoL following moderate intensity exercise. The implications for future health care practice and research are discussed.

Linkage of HDR capabilities software

Linkage of HDR capabilities software

http://www.hdrlabs.com/tools/links.html

Everything you need to know about HDRI
By Christian Bloch
http://www.hdrlabs.com/news/index.php
High Dynamic Range Imaging is a method to digitally capture and edit all light in a scene. It represents a quantum leap in imaging technology, as revolutionary as the leap from Black & White to Color imaging. If you are serious about photography, you will find that HDRI is the final step that places digital ahead of analog. The old problem of over- and underexposure in analog photography, which was never fully solved, is elegantly bypassed here. A huge variety of subjects can now be photographed for the first time ever.

HDRI emerged from the movie industry, and was once Hollywood's best kept secret. It is now a mature technology available to everyone. The only problem was that it was poorly documented until now. The HDRI Handbook is the manual that was missing.

Many questions remain open even for the hip CG artists that have been using HDRI for years. This is where The HDRI Handbook comes in. Included here is everything you need to build a comprehensive knowledge base that will enable you to become really creative with HDRI. This book is packed with practical hints and tips, software evaluations, workshops, and hands-on tutorials. Whether you are a photographer, CG artist, compositor, or cinematographer, this book is sure to enlighten you.

New Guidelines for Physical Activity Intervention for Weight Loss

New Guidelines for Physical Activity Intervention for Weight Loss
The American College of Sports Medicine (ACSM) has updated its guidelines for appropriate physical activity (PA) intervention strategies for weight loss and prevention of weight regain in adults.

The Position Stand updates the 2001 ACSM recommendations. The latter document discussed identifying adults needing weight loss, the magnitude of weight loss recommended, dietary strategies, the use of resistance exercise, the use of pharmacotherapy, behavioral techniques, and other topics.

"The purpose of the current update was to focus on new information that has been published after 1999, which may indicate that increased levels of ... PA may be necessary for prevention of weight gain, for weight loss, and prevention of weight regain compared to those recommended in the 2001 Position Stand," write Joseph E. Donnelly, EdD, and colleagues from the ASCM. "In particular, this update is in response to published information regarding the amount of PA needed for weight management found in the National Weight Control Registry and by the Institute of Medicine. This update was undertaken for persons older than 18 yr who were enrolled in PA trials designed for prevention of weight gain (i.e., weight stability), for weight loss, or prevention of weight regain."

Guidelines regarding weight control are needed because more than 66% of the adult population are overweight or obese, conditions which are associated with a variety of chronic diseases. Although guidelines of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute recommend a 10% reduction in weight for those who are obese, much evidence supports a lowered health risk with 3% to 5% weight loss.

To prevent weight gain, to lose weight, and to prevent weight regain after weight loss, PA is recommended as a component of weight management. Light-intensity activity is defined as 1.1 to 2.9 metabolic equivalents, moderate-intensity activity as 3.0 to 5.9 metabolic equivalents, and vigorous activity as 6 or more metabolic equivalents.

Although the 2001 ACSM guidelines recommended a minimum of 150 minutes per week of moderate-intensity PA for overweight and obese adults to improve health and 200 to 300 minutes per week for long-term weight loss, the updated guidelines suggest that moderate-intensity PA between 150 and 250 minutes per week is effective to prevent weight gain but will provide only modest weight loss.

Clinically significant weight loss has been reported with greater amounts of PA (> 250 minutes per week). In studies that use moderate but not severe diet restriction, weight loss was improved by moderate-intensity PA between 150 and 250 minutes per week. After weight loss, weight maintenance is improved with PA of more than 250 minutes per week, according to findings of cross-sectional and prospective studies, but there have been no well-designed, randomized controlled trials to determine whether PA is effective to prevent weight regain after weight loss.

Although resistance training does not increase weight loss, it may increase fat-free mass and loss of fat mass while lowering health risk. Available data suggest that endurance PA or resistance training reduces health risk even without weight loss. Evidence to date is insufficient to determine whether PA prevents or ameliorates harmful changes in the risk for chronic disease during periods of weight gain.

Few studies to date have enrolled adults older than 65 years, but this is an important population to evaluate because of concerns that weight loss in older adults may cause loss of fat-free mass and potential bone loss. The position stand reviews the available evidence as it applies to the general population, while pointing out that individuals vary in their response to PA for prevention of weight gain, for weight loss, and for weight maintenance.

Although the review did not include studies of individuals with comorbid conditions that acutely affect weight, such as AIDS and type 1 diabetes, or pharmacotherapy trials, it did include trials enrolling individuals using medication for comorbid diseases, such as hypertension, cardiovascular disease, and type 2 diabetes.

Specific clinical recommendations, and their accompanying level of evidence rating, are as follows:

• For prevention of weight gain in most adults, PA of 150 to 250 minutes per week, with an energy equivalent of 1,200 to 2,000 kcal/week, will prevent weight gain of more than 3% (level of evidence, A).
• There is a dose-response effect of PA on weight loss, with PA of less than 150 minutes per week resulting in minimal weight loss, PA of more than 150 minutes per week in modest weight loss of approximately 2 to 3 kg, and PA of more than 225 to 420 minutes per week leading to weight loss of 5 to 7.5 kg (level of evidence, B).
• To maintain weight after weight loss, some studies suggest that PA of approximately 200 to 300 minutes per week will help minimize weight regain, although "more is better." To date, no well-designed, sufficiently powered, energy-balance studies provide evidence concerning the amount of PA needed to prevent weight regain after weight loss (level of evidence, B).
• Lifestyle PA, which is an ambiguous term that should be better defined to assess available evidence in the literature, may help counteract the small energy imbalance ultimately leading to obesity in most adults (level of evidence, B).
• If diet restriction is modest but not if diet restriction is severe, PA will increase weight loss (level of evidence, A).
• Resistance training is ineffective for weight loss with or without diet restriction, according to limited research evidence. However, some limited data suggest that resistance training enhances gain or maintenance of lean mass and loss of body fat during energy restriction. Furthermore, resistance training may also ameliorate risk factors for chronic disease, such as low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, insulin sensitivity, and blood pressure (level of evidence, B).

"On the basis of the available scientific literature, the ACSM recommends that adults participate in at least 150 min/wk of moderate-intensity PA to prevent significant weight gain and reduce associated chronic disease risk factors," the guidelines authors write. "It is recommended that overweight and obese individuals participate in this level of PA to elicit modest reductions in body weight. However, there is likely a dose effect of PA, with greater weight loss and enhanced prevention of weight regained with doses of PA that approximate 250 to 300 min/wk (approximately 2,000 kcal/wk) of moderate intensity PA."

The guidelines authors note that these recommendations are consistent with those of the US Department of Health and Human Services Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans.
Med Sci Sports Exerc. 2009;41:459-471.

Pepsi to release sodas with natural sugar

Other linkage about high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) and corn syrup:

• Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HFCS .
• The HFCS industry: http://www.sweetsurprise.com/ .
• The USDA: Dietary Assessment of Major Trends.
• The USDA: Consumption Timeline of Events producer driven.

Hypertension Awareness, Treatment, and Control -Continued Disparities in
Adults: United States, 2005-2006

High blood pressure (BP) is a modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) (1). High BP increases the risk of heart attack, heart failure, stroke, and kidney disease (2-4). Conversely, favorable BP levels are associated with a greater probability of survival to age 85 as well as increased longevity without major co-morbidities (5,6). Increasing the awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension will reduce morbidity and mortality. This is a goal of national public health programs and initiatives such as the National High Blood Pressure Education Program (7). Data on levels of this risk factor in the U.S. population help to identify subgroups where risk may be greatest and prevention efforts might be targeted. Comparison over time can also show if the population is experiencing improvement in controlling elevated levels of BP.